Have the DWP done the maths?

The DWP have estimated between 310,000 and 500,000 disabled people will lose all support following the reforms to Disability Living Allowance, which will only affect working-age disabled people, including the 2,010,000 who currently claim DLA.

These are not (all) fraudulent claimants – at least 209,500 non-fraudulent DLA claimants will lose out - assuming every one of the fraudulent claimants is weeded out during the reassessment process. (The DWP estimates that 0.5% of DLA claimants are fraudulent. 2,010,000 x 0.5% = 100,500. 310,000 – 100,500 = 209,500. The higher figure is 500,000 - 100,500 = 400,500 disabled people losing benefit support)

I’ve spent Sunday afternoon using DWP reported figures to work out:

a) the current numbers of working-age disabled people getting each combination of DLA rates

b) what the new PIP regime will look like in terms of different types of claimant

c) from that, where the cuts will come from to reduce the numbers of claimants by 310,000

 Total DLA expenditure currently £12,000,000,000 (From http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/adhoc_analysis/2011/analysis_of_disability_living_allowance_DLA_awards.pdf )

Total number of claimants = 3,203,000

Number of working age claimants = 2,010,000

Number of claimants under 16 = 335,000

Number of pensioners = 857,000

(claimant numbers from http://www.dwp.gov.uk/docs/eia-dla-reform-wr2011.pdf ) 

Percent of claimants that are working age = 2,010,000 / 3,203,000

= 62.7%

I will round to 63%

63% of current budget £12,000,000,000 x 0.63

 = £7,560,000,000

£7,560,000,000 / 2,010,000 = £3,779

Average of total budget spend per claimant = £3,779

PIP will have 20% decrease in total budget = £9,600,000,000

PIP is only for working age claimants. Pension age claimants will continue to get DLA, and not be reassessed for PIP.

Only working age claimants affected by change to PIP. So 100-63% = 37% of CURRENT budget must go to claimants not of working age (children and pensioners). = £4,440,000,000

Amount left for working age claimants will be

£9,600,000,000 – 4,440000,000 = £5,160,000,000

£5,160,000,000 / 2,000,500

= £2,579 per head

So if the total number of DLA claimants simply transfers to PIP, each claimant will, on average, lose £1,200 a year, or £100 a month.

However, the DWP itself accepts that will not happen - people will lose their benefit support.

The information below uses the DWP figures from “Disability Living Allowance Reform, Equality Impact Assessment. May 2012”  http://www.dwp.gov.uk/docs/eia-dla-reform-wr2011.pdf  Table 8, Page 12 for proportions of each claim rate.

Who currently gets DLA and at what rates?

These are the current numbers of people getting each combination of DLA rates.

	Lower Rate Care	Middle Rate Care	Higher Rate Care	Care – no award
Lower Rate Mobility	LRM & LRC	LRM & MRC	LRM & HRC	LRM
	190950	347730	122610	80400
	9.50%	17.30%	6.10%	4.00%
Higher Rate Mobility	HRM & LRC	MRC & HRM	HRC & HRM	HRM
	271350	271350	299490	184920
	13.50%	13.50%	14.90%	9.20%
Mobility – No Award	LRC	MRC	HRC	XX
	188940	42210	8040	0
	9.40%	2.10%	0.40%	0%

Table 1 – percentage of working age claimants getting each combination of DLA rate and number of claimants at each rate.

Figure in middle cells indicates number of claimants, calculated using total number of working age claimants = 2,010,000, and percentage provided in table 8 of referenced document. Some rounding has clearly been used in the DLA Table 8 as the percentages do not add to 100%, and total claimants is 2,007,990.

This is my estimate of how PIP will look – based on some assumptions described beneath the table.

.

	Care – standard rate	Care – enhanced rate	Care – no award
Mobility – standard rate	C-SR & M-SR 12%	C-ER & M-SR 15%	M-SR 6%
Mobility – enhanced rate	C-SR & M-ER 12%	C-ER & M-ER 23%	M-ER 15%
Mobility – no award	C-SR 14%	C-ER 3%	XX

Table 2 – estimated proportions of PIP claimants by rate, projected from DLA proportions.

Note. I have estimated the proportions of people receiving PIP based on the following assumptions and evidence:

The reforms claim to be helping those in greatest need – so I’ve increased the proportion getting enhanced rate benefits slightly, and assumed some lower rate claimants will lose out. Also, people who can "mobilise" effectively may be considered not in need of mobility support. "mobilise" includes using a wheelchair.

There are fewer rates to choose from, so I’ve combined DLA claim proportions to map across to PIP (e.g. MRC & HRC have combined to C-ER)

Total projected number of PIP claimants in the DWPs analysis is 1,700,000²

	C-SR	C-ER	C-None
M-SR	204000	255000	102000
M-ER	204000	425000	255000
M-none	238000	51000	XX

Table 4 – estimated number of PIP claimants by rate, calculated from reference 2 figure of projected PIP numbers 2015 = 1,700,000.

	C-SR	C-ER	C-None
M-SR	204,000 DWP – 250,00	255,000 DWP -110,000	102,000 DWP-230,000
M-ER	204,000 DWP-190,000	425000 DWP -340,000	255,000 DWP -230,00
M-none	238,000 DWP-250,000	51,000 DWP- 90,000	XX

Table 5 amended– estimated number of PIP claimants by rate with DWP projected figures added. (With thanks to @Narco_sam for finding the figures in http://www.dwp.gov.uk/docs/pip-assessment-thresholds-and-consultation.pdf )

Many additional types of support are “passported” from DLA.

Not all DLA claimants will be able to access all of these things - they are dependent on DLA rate awarded, economic need, area of the country the claimant lives in, amongst other things.
 

* Enhanced Housing Benefit rates to account for need for extra room for carers or equipment

* Someone getting Carer's Allowance for looking after someone on DLA will lose that Carer's Allowance
* Concessionary travel schemes - Freedom Pass, local bus passes and the National Rail Disabled Person’s Railcard, M6 toll pass, London Congestion Zone exemption

* Motability funding so disabled people can afford adapted cars.

* Blue Badges for disabled parking

* Access to some local council support

* Discounted access to gyms and leisure centres

* discounted or free tickets at some galleries, museums, cinemas and theatres for your carer, so you don’t have to pay extra to go out, just because you can’t go alone.
* Higher rate mobility DLA claimants can learn to drive at 17, and get free car tax.
* Warm Home rebate from some energy suppliers.
* Enhanced Income Support levels to account for increased costs of life with impairment

Fraud figure from http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmworpen/1493/1493vw43.htm

http://www.dwp.gov.uk/docs/pip-assessment-thresholds-and-consultation.pdf

Edit: Oh, and best estimate of fraudulent claimants is 0.5%, or 1 claimant in 200.